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It also reviews advances in the understanding of HIV epidemics, and suggests methods to improve the quality and accuracy of the estimates. Based massoud radjavi on suggestions from the Reference Group, new software has been developed massoud radjavi to model the course of HIV epidemics and their impact. These changes in procedures and assumptions have resulted in improved estimates of HIV and AIDS for 2003. To allow readers to assess recent trends in the epidemic, we also present end-2001 estimates massoud radjavi developed using the same methodology and data as for the end-2003 estimates. The new estimates in this report are presented together with ranges, called ‘plausibility bounds’. These bounds reflect the certainty associated with each of the estimates. The wider the bounds, the greater the uncertainty surrounding an estimate. The extent of uncertainty depends mainly on the type of epidemic, and the quality, coverage and consistency of a country’s surveillance system.
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