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That wasn't true. Bush proposed cuts in future benefits. Yglesias doesn't dispute any of this. His point is that Bush did cook the books to make personal accounts seem like a better deal than an books unreformed Social Security. Even if that were true, it would be irrelevant to the books point I made. It wouldn't, that is, show me to be guilty of any mathematical error. I'm also not sure that Yglesias's charge against the White House holds up. It didn't just invent a figure for projected stock-market returns; it relied books on the Social Security Administration's actuaries. Yglesias argues that those returns imply strong economic growth, which would in turn make an unreformed Social Security look better. The reformers thus failed to apply consistent assumptions. But higher growth wouldn't bring an unreformed Social Security into long-term balance. It would only push the problem further out.
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